Some press excerpts have been released from Obama's interview with George S. tomorrow on "This Week."  Unsurprisingly, Obama was asked about Palin power and he doesn't seem too shy, at least from the excerpts, with getting in some shots.

http://thepage.time.com/excerpts-from-ob amas-interview-with-this-week/

Obama compliments her as a "skilled politician" though I suspect that's not entirely a compliment.  He also quipped that McCain "chose somebody who may be even more aligned with George Bush - or Dick Cheney, or the politics we've seen over the last eight years - than John McCain himself is."  Is that a hint that Obama may, or leave it to some surrogates to do it, bring up her stances on social issues and turn the culture wars against the pubs because it is generally accepted that McCain is, and this isn't saying much, less socially conservative than Bush?

Halperin also claims that Obama didn't concede that Palin was qualified (I think the best line to use about Palin's experience is "I'll leave it to the voters to determine whether she is qualified for the job as vice president and potentially president) and that Obama noted that the country doesn't know very much about her.

If I were Obama, I'd proclaim that either myself or Biden will hold at least one media availability a day and even better, go on a morning show everyday until Sarah Palin gives a national news network.  I'd promote the idea that she is ducking the press, a completely fair hit on her that has no relation to her gender.

Since not one person has posted about my "insights" into Obama's interview with O'Reilly, I'll just cut that part out and talk about polls or more accurately, my "opining" about what the polls will show based on absolutely nothing but speculation:

Palin will not move the daily tracking poll numbers (I highly value daily tracking polls unlike the Obama campaign and everyone else on this blog). Obama will be up 5 in Rasmussen on Saturday and up 6 in gallup on Saturday and Sunday.

Here's another prediction based on nothing (what else would be basing predictions on, there have been three reliable state polls released in the last two weeks): for all her virtues, Sarah Palin puts the state of Florida firmly in the toss-up camp. It's unsurprising that Obama would dispatch HRC to Florida on Monday (though it's kind of weird that Obama's camp doesn't seem to want this info getting to the national press as TPM was the entity that confirmed it); what is pertinent in my opinion is that Schumer is being sent down there. Schumer is our top gasoline thrower when it comes to Jewish values and his campaigning down there suggests to me that Plouffe and Axelrod think there is a real fire with Palin on the ticket, just as there was some real fire with Jeremiah Wright. I disagree with Singer on Obama's Jewish support, he was underperforming among this demo according to the polls but I think Palin's selection gives him an opening here to achieve the amount of Jewish support that other dem candidates, such as HRC and Biden, would get among Jews in Florida. McCain had stalled Obama's polling in Florida without having to spend a dime in ads; however, Palin may be worth much more to Obama than any amount of money in ads, at least in Florida.

Jeremiah Wright = McCain's affair/affairs (my prediction is that neither side will bite on either of these)

other pastors = Hagee/the other crazy pastor

Rezko = Keating 5/other sleazy lobbyists

Ayers = McCain's ties to mobsters and G. Gordon Liddy

Argula/bitter = $500 loafers/not knowing how many homes you own

Race card = POW card

Anything else?

Well, if you go to openleft right now, Stoller has linked to an article about Wes not even attending the covnvention.  His office has allegedly confirmed that Wes will not be attending the convention at this point.  What may be ruffling some feathers is that Obama's people allegedly told Clark that there was no reason for him to come and that effectively he was not needed to speak on the day dedicated to "Securing America's Future."  As of right now, Wes has no role at the convention.

I hope this is a headfake (doubtful because his office allegedly confirmed this point) because even if he's not an actual VP candidate, it strikes me as absurd that a four-star general has not been given any role or has not even been asked to speak at the convention.  What it confirms for me is that the incident on Face the Nation really damaged Wes's chances at the veep and that it was not a coordinated effort.

I'm sure some folks will see this non-invitation as another slight to a guy closely tied with the Clintons but I'm willing to give Obama's people the benefit of the doubt.  Rangel shouldn't be speaking given that he's under some scrutiny pertaining to his properties; that may also be why Chris Dodd has not been given a speaking engagement.  Wes was planning to be out of the country anyway so the Obama folks may have thought "hey, you are not going to be the veep, so don't worry about coming."  I hope Obama's folks reconsider as Wes brought the house down in 2004.

According to Ambinder (who has staked his credibility with Sebelius and Pawlenty as the veep candidates), sources from Warner's inner circle are leaking that some in Obama's camp, not necessarily Obama himself, attempted to get Warner to flip from his earlier Shermanasque pronouncement about the VP spot.  Unfortunately for us Warner groupies (myself, Jerome, and lori), Warner decided against flipping.  Obama/Warner would have been an amazing team; that crap about VPs unable to swing states doesn't apply to a guy viewed as a savior in Virginia.  Kaine was able to ride his coattails from four years earlier to win the governorship.  The Obama/Warner team would have put McCain in a fetal position, forcing him to win Michigan to take the presidency as McCain is already underperforming dramatically in Virginia.

I too believe that Warner will be president one day, either in 2012 or 2016.  I'm not sure if he made the right call here; Warner may have thought that he didn't want to risk a 99% chance of winning a Senate Seat for a 65% chance of becoming the veep.  However, I believe Obama's chances would have improved dramatically with Warner at his side formally as veep.

I wouldn't be feeling too comfortable about my veep chances if I were Evan Bayh.  That Obama was allegedly trying to get Warner to flip suggests to me that he has some reservations about Bayh, supporting my theory that something in Obama's gut prevented from him pulling the trigger on Bayh last week, which I believe would have been the perfect time to do it as Bayh would have received the spotlight this week with Obama on vacation.  

This movement against Bayh as veep is pretty surprising; you cannot blame it on the Clintonite types either as the true-believers such as Stoller and Bowers over at Openleft are the ones pushing it.  I wonder if Obama is trying to get someone else such Al Gore to possibly flip from an earlier Shermanesque statement.

According to the LA times, Obama's "presidential campaign has confirmed that announcement of Obama's running mate choice is very near."

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washingt on/2008/08/obama-vp.html

The campaign just sent an e-mail stating that Obama is "about to choose a running mate."  The intriguing thing about this story is that Obama would break the news via text message or e-mail.  

What "news" he would break via text message and e-mail is unclear.  Would he really send the VP's name via e-mail and text message or would he just send the date and location of when he is going to formally announce his veep candidate?  The article also speculated about the possibility of his naming his veep while he's on vacation and thus, forgoing the grand ceremony of introducing the veep by his side.  I have a hard time seeing Obama going through with this approach as it would severely diminish the veep whoever he or she may be.

I'm expecting anybody at this point, even Big Dog as it would raise some interesting questions as to the intent behind the 22nd Amendment (though I suspect Obama and Big Dog could claim that such a question is unjusticiable under the "political question" doctrine)

Just for the record, here is what Obama had to say about Edwards upon landing in Honolulu:

"The Edwards family indicated that they probably wouldn't be attending the convention. I understand that, look this is a difficult and painful time for them and I think they need to work through that process of healing. John Edwards was a great champion of working people through the course of this campaign. Many of his themes are ones that Democrats as a whole share, those will be amplified in the convention, and I wish them all well." http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/ story?id=5544983&page=1

Here is what HRC had to say about Edwards at a press conference after her event for Obama in Vegas.

"My thoughts and prayers are with the Edwards family today and that's all I've got to say." www.thepage.com

I'm predicting that the North Carolina GOP will attempt to tie Edwards to Obama if you remember the Wright video that it tried to run during the primaries.  I greatly admire Elizabeth Edwards and this revelation is pretty darn stinging.  I was never a fan of her husbands and I'm even less of a fan tonight.

http://thepage.time.com/more-on-lifetime -womens-poll/

So the topline number is an unsurprising 49-38 lead for Obama over McCain among women voters interviewed by the Lifetime network.  The lead stems mainly from Obama's overwhelming performance among Hispanic and African-American women.  Obama still has some work to do with white women as he is trailing McCain 47-38, which is a larger deficit than Kerry had against Bush among white women.

The more interesting number is how these women responded when asked about either candidate taking a women as his running mate.  Surprisingly, 20% of these voters would be less likely to vote for McCain if he ran with a woman while 15% would be more likely to vote for him.  With Obama, 29% of these voters (twice as many as the number for McCain) indicated that they were more likely to vote for him if he did run with a woman while 15% would be less likely to vote for him.

As for those women interviewed who voted for HRC, 47% indicated that they were more likely to support Obama if he ran with a woman while only 4% said they were less likely to vote for him.

Favorable/Unfavorable among these voters: Obama 53/28, McCain 37/31

Ten percent remain undecided (I suppose that means 3% will vote third-party or not vote at all); if Obama splits this ten percent, he will end up defeating McCain by a 54-43 margin among women, which may the biggest disparity among this demographic group in quite some time.  McCain would probably need to win 70% of the white male vote (which may be possible and what McCain may be aiming for judging by the way he performed in Sturgis) to defeat Obama if Obama beat McCain by double digits among women.